Climate crisis: Why Australia must draw line at 1.5 °C

The Australian Labor Party has on Monday 15 September 2025 released its first national climate risk assessment, warning that unchecked heating beyond 1.5°C will trigger “cascading, compounding, and concurrent” threats to people, ecosystems and the economy.

The report models warming of 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C and confirms the country is already brushing the 1.5°C threshold. Every fraction of a degree beyond 1.5°C would mean greater damage to both Australian communities and to its Pacific neighbours on the frontline of rising sea levels and extreme weather.

Fenton Lutunatabua, 350.org Deputy Head of Regions says, “Every tenth of a degree beyond 1.5°C means a loss of more life, more homes and more livelihoods. No one feels this more clearly than those of us in the Pacific. If Australia wants to avoid the worst of the climate crisis, the national climate risk assessment and national adaptation plans are just the first step. The solution to this crisis is unequivocally an end to fossil fuel production, and notably, Australia’s fossil fuel exports. If the Albanese government does not address this and do its utmost best to align with 1.5°C in their new climate plan, the risks outlined in this report are only the beginning – for all of us that call the Pacific home. We need to draw a line at what we are willing to lose to the dangers of fossil fuels.”

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, who is leading Australia’s bid to co-host COP31 with Pacific nations, said the findings show that “every degree of warming we prevent now will help future generations avoid the worst impacts.”

But rhetoric will ring hollow unless it is matched by action. The Albanese Government must:

Submit ambitious new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) this year, in line with a credible pathway to keep 1.5°C alive.

Stop approving new coal, oil and gas projects that betray science, Australian communities, and the Pacific peoples whose survival depends on a swift, just transition.

Use COP30 in Baku to press for a global deal that locks in a rapid, just phase-out of fossil fuels and mobilises finance for most affected countries.

Jacynta Fa’amau, 350.org Pacific Campaigner says, “People think that the climate crisis is only impacting islands in the Pacific, but the reality is that flooding and erosion will hit Australia’s coasts as well, and bushfires are already a stark reality. Pacific islanders have already heralded this warning for decades. I hope that this assessment is a wake-up call that not only are our islands at risk, but so are millions of Australians if the Albanese government fails to act. The approval of the North West Shelf gas extension this week is a dark shadow over this government’s climate promises. We are drawing the line against Australia’s climate hypocrisy and insist that the new climate plan announced this week will define Australia’s future as a climate leader and our ability to stay on track for the 1.5 degree limit.”

Pacific leaders and communities continue to “Draw the Line” at 1.5°C, with actions planned in Fiji, Australia and New Zealand on the 21st of September as part of the global Draw the Line mobilization that will see over 400 actions take place around the world from 19-21 September. Last week, Pacific Islands Forum leaders presented a bold plan to make the Pacific the world’s first 100% renewable region. echoing calls from the Pacific Climate Warriors and diaspora groups on the lawns of Australia’s Parliament earlier this year.

If Australia wants to host COP31 alongside Pacific partners, it must prove its commitment now: end new fossil fuel approvals, ramp up clean energy and climate finance, and show the leadership that a 1.5°C future demands.